Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
